Planning Mystery #3

All Autonomous Vehicles Shall Come with Ejection Seats: Let’s Imagine Some Policy Options That Make Sense in This New World Presented by Dick Mudge, Compass Transportation and Technology

Problem

Urban transportation is in the midst of a sea change generated by autonomous vehicles, shared mobility services, and changed market preferences for density and vehicle ownership.

New vehicles have the promise of eliminating most crashes, reducing congestion, and encouraging new travel patterns. Shared mobility will help discourage auto ownership. New attitudes regarding vehicle ownership and urban living imply shifts in demand. The challenge is to make sense from this series of non-linear changes and develop the appropriate policy responses. The key questions in terms of:

• Modeling and Forecasting
  • What is the role of traditional models in the face of such uncertainty?
  • How can we generate reasonable forecasts when the past offers no guidance?
  • Are scenarios the key tool of future planning?
• Planning and Policy
  • Do long-range plans make any sense when we are faced with this pace and scale of change?
  • Given that major transportation investments often take a decade or two to plan and build, what type of investments are appropriate?
  • What trigger points might we use to identify changes in technology, the pace of deployment, and market responses?
  • How has our menu of policy responses changed and how might they vary based on different community values?

Failure to resolve these issue risks damage to the credibility of long-range plans and may result in public investment or policies that fail to guide new transportation developments.

Assignment

This group will sketch out potential policy responses to these phenomena that will be useful over the next 5 years as well as suggestions for how to include these phenomena in planning and forecasting exercises. What rules of thumb make sense? What do we need to know in order to develop plans that are practical and credible?